O P I N I O N
The President says that the shutdown is about security and I think he is right, but not in the way he is thinking.
We have to take this agency by agency, but just look at the numbers. The EPA, probably no one’s favorite agency for different reasons, says it is furloughing 13,000 out of its 14,000 employees. Is it likely that some of those employees serve cybersecurity (or even physical security) functions? Maybe the 1,000 people are all of the folks managing cybersecurity, but I doubt it.
TSA screeners are considered essential, so they are supposed to work even though they are not being paid. Some number of them (TSA isn’t saying how many) have been calling in sick. Given the horrible stats regarding TSA agents detecting contraband and the fact that TSA turnover is 80% or more a year in some cities, there is no way that this is not negatively impacting your security. It is affecting my security less because I haven’t had to fly lately, but if I did, it would affect my security too.
Even if the TSA attrition rate is not climbing during the shutdown, they are not hiring anyone right now. That alone puts security at a disadvantage. The TSA has 50,000 agents. If you assume they have to replace only 25,000 every year, if the shutdown lasts a month and the stats don’t go up, they will have to replace about 2,000 people. How easy will that be given that the government is/was shut down. The TSA says that standards won’t suffer, but you can do your own math.
Many so called government employees are actually contractors. It is possible that some companies are choosing to pay their employees to work at federal jobs even though they are not and likely will not be paid (historically, federal employees got back pay after they returned to work but contractors did not), but some companies do not have the resources to do that. Combine that with the government issuing what they call “stop work” orders to contractors and you have to believe that there is an impact. One stat I read tonight said that 40% of the federal labor force is contractors. Assuming that is close to true, surely some of those people are not working as a result of the shutdown and probably some of them perform security functions.
Other parts of Homeland Security includes 187 departments and several hundred thousand employees. At least some of them have been furloughed; others are working without pay, while others are looking for other jobs.
Who are the most likely to find other jobs? Certainly it is not those with the least skills. When it comes to cybersecurity, it is the ones with the most skills and likely, if they leave, they will get a pay raise. And, they won’t come back.
So while the government will never admit how much the shutdown affected security, the longer it goes on, the greater the effect is.
Just my two cents.